Revisiting UN Peacekeeping at a Crossroads: Institutional Mandates, Challenges, and the Changing Nature Conflict

Abstract

United Nations (UN) peacekeeping has served for decades as a primary mechanism of international conflict management, yet it currently faces a systemic crisis and an existential "crossroads" within an increasingly fractured multilateral environment. This crisis is characterized by the decline of the post-Cold War liberal peacebuilding paradigm, driven by a nearly 50% reduction in global troop deployments since 2010 and the proliferation of asymmetric threats from non-state armed actors. This article specifically investigates the widening "mandate-capability gap" and the institutional transition from ambitious multidimensional mandates toward "sovereignty-first" stabilization missions. The research utilizes a mixed-methods design, integrating qualitative process-tracing of missions in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) with subnational quantitative analysis leveraging the Geocoded Peacekeeping Operations (Geo-PKO) and Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) datasets. The discussion and analysis focus on the mechanism of "institutional drift," wherein the UN’s formal liberal rhetoric persists while operational practice shifts toward conflict containment and technical support to preserve host-state access. Findings indicate that while peacekeeping remains statistically effective at reducing battle-related deaths at the local level, its success is increasingly paralyzed by "compromised" host-state consent and the "stabilization dilemma" of taking sides against spoilers in active war zones. The study recommends a "pragmatic turn" toward modular, nimble deployments and a "politics at the center" approach, aligning with the strategic objectives of the 2024 Pact for the Future and the 2026 Review on the Future of Peace Operations.